Bringing medicines to patients with mathematical biology

When applied to describe human pathophysiology, it is natural to ask how mathematical biology can contribute to human health. In this talk, I will discuss the application of mechanistic modeling in developing novel therapies and explore why this is a natural and essential endeavor. The journey from concept to approved therapy is incredibly challenging, with failure being far more likely than success. One approach to mitigate this obstacle is the utilization of mathematical models of disease that incorporate the dynamics and effects of treatments. This field is known as Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP). These models can address critical questions regarding how a drug works and how that specific target may influence (or not) the progression of acute or chronic diseases. QSP models typically ordinary differential equations and are designed to accurately replicate known biological processes. By design, they can be developed, validated, and tested through a wealth of data from genetics, real-world evidence, clinical trials, and other species. In this talk, I will introduce QSP models and their impact on drug development. To illustrate this, I will present several examples, including an overview of our mechanistic modeling of COVID-19 during the pandemic that supported the development of a novel therapeutic.